Shaimerden Chikanayev gave an interview to The Diplomat magazine
In an interview with The Diplomat, Shaimerden Chikanayev explained the concept of the "gas union," its origins amid complex geopolitical changes, and its role in enhancing Central Asia's energy security in the short term, while also potentially creating risky new dependencies in the long run.
What impact has the war in Ukraine had on the energy geopolitics of Eurasia?
Chikanayev: The emergence of the so-called “trilateral gas union” is the direct consequence of the war in Ukraine, and it symbolizes a significant shift in Central Asia energy dynamics. As Russian President Vladimir Putin noted, these are “the first exports of a kind in the history of these gas pipeline systems, for never before has Russian gas been pumped toward Central Asia.”
The whole idea of the “trilateral gas union” is to enable Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to export all of their own natural gas to China at a higher price, while purchasing gas from Russia at a lower price for domestic consumption. This would be in Russia’s interest, as Russia must deal somehow with the gas embargo by the European Union. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are already experiencing a shortage of gas, yet still need to comply with contractual obligations for export to China and meet increased domestic consumption. It seems, therefore, that the “trilateral gas union” can provide economic benefits to Russia, Central Asia, and China and, therefore, it has good chances for success even without being officially recognized as a “gas union.”.
It seems also that because of the war in Ukraine, Russia has been forced to curtail all its plans to proceed with the liberalization of its domestic gas market and with the creation of the common gas market of the Eurasian Economic Union.
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*Shaimerden Chikanayev is currently on a study sabbatical until 2026, not an employee of GRATA.
