Kazakhstan hedges in the new nuclear Great Game
Recent peer-reviewed article by Shaimerden Chikanayev on the new nuclear "Great Game" in Central Asia and the role of small nuclear power plants (so-called SMRs) in it, was published in the East Asia Forum.
Importantly, on 15 April 2026, after Shaimerden's article was written, Kazakhstan adopted its Nuclear Industry Development Strategy until 2050 (the "Strategy").
Below are Shaimerden's key takeaways from the Strategy, along with brief conclusions that complement his article below in East Asia Forum:
1) What the Strategy confirms:
- Nuclear generation is seen as crucial for Kazakhstan’s both energy security and a just energy transition.
- Kazakhstan plans to build not just a few nuclear power plants, but create a proper nuclear cluster, that is including advanced nuclear energy, industry, and science.
- By 2050, at least three nuclear power plants (NPPs) with a total capacity of up to 8,400 MW shall be expected in Kazakhstan.
- The Kazakhstan government will in a near future assess the feasibility of SMRs under national and regional conditions. If approved, SMR-based NPPs with up to 1,200 MW will be part of the same 8,400 MW target.
2) What the Strategy failed to specify:
- How foreign contractors will be selected for all future NPPs construction? In my view, transparency, legality, and sustainability can only be ensured through existing PPP Law, but not ad hoc intergovernmental agreements or non-statutory procedures (as is currently the case for Kazakhstan's debut NPP project).
- How will the Kazakhstan government compel foreign companies to transfer technology and train local specialists, so as to enable creation of the nuclear cluster? Again, in my view, PPP law, especially the mechanism for selecting a private partner through so-called direct negotiations (i.e., without an open tender) when technology transfer is involved, is the most suitable legal instrument for these purposes.
Shaimerden Chikanayev is currently on a study sabbatical until 2026 and is not employed by GRATA.
